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Map-makers, Explorers, and Tricksters:
New Roles for Planning and Prediction in Nonlinear, Complex Systems

Jeffrey Goldstein, Ph.D.
School of Management and Business
Adelphi University
Garden City, NY 11530

"If you want to make God laugh, tell Him your plans"
-Ida Davis, late grandmother of the author

 

Introduction: Planning in the New World of Complex Systems.

Planning is considered a crucial responsibility for the leaders of organizations. The common wisdom has it that the higher-up in the hierarchy a leader is, the greater the time span is supposed to be covered by planning. Thus, a CEO is expected to be involved in planning that focuses on several years, even many years, ahead. The sequence of planning typically goes like this: accurate forecasting; establishing a vision; planning for the vision; articulating the vision; implementing the plan; measuring the progress being made to achieve the vision; and, correcting the course if necessary. But, what assumptions underlie this conception of planning and do they remain as pertinent as they once did in the face of the strange new world of complex and nonlinear systems within which leaders must lead?

Consider the etymology of the word "plan": it comes from the Latin "planus" meaning flat, as in our words "plane" (a flat surface) and "plain" (the Plains). A "plan" is a projection or map of a three dimensional object (e.g., an airplane) onto a two dimension flat surface (e.g., the airplane s blueprint). The plan then offers a way to both survey all at once a dauntingly large or complicated object as well as a means to peer into the future by looking ahead on the plan s flat surface. But the flatness and static quality of the plan neglect not only the spatial third dimension but the temporal dimension of a system's evolution over time as well. This neglect is not a problem if the plan is of a simple, linear system. But, what recent research into complexity is showing is that our businesses or institutions are not simple or linear, they are better thought of as complex and nonlinear. As a result, the leadership role of planning needs to be rethought in the light of complexity research.

I propose in this article to reconceive planning in the light of contemporary research in the complexity sciences by sketching out three revised roles for planners in the complex, nonlinear, and nonequilibrium world in which our businesses and institutions exist:


Aides
Metaphor
  1. Planners as Nonlinear and Complex Map-makers
  2. Planners as Nonlinear and Complex Explorers
  3. Planners as Nonlinear and Complex Tricksters

These three roles are interrelated in the sense that the planner as Trickster first needs to have Explored the new terrain of the nonlinear and complex world which, in turn, demands that appropriate maps have been made of this new geography. So, first we'll look at the new maps, then how to explore the new geography, and finally, how to proceed within this new geography following these new maps.

 

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